The Brexit campaign is wrong: the UK is already a sovereign nation | Jonathan Freedland

The out campaign claims our membership of the EU prevents us from being masters of our own destiny. In fact we already have that power

Michael Gove and Tony Benn are not related by blood, marriage or spiritual kinship. They belong in separate political universes. And yet such is the nature of the Brexit argument – carving its way through party lines, pitting friend against friend, uniting enemy with enemy – that the Conservative justice secretary has become the authentic voice of Bennism.

Related: Message to Michael Gove: this deal is binding, and it’s the best Britain will get | Guy Verhofstadt

Related: Irrational, unhinged, gullible? No, the many who want Britain out of Europe deserve to be listened to | John Harris

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I’ve felt the Bern. And Jeremy Corbyn, you’re no Senator Sanders | Jonathan Freedland

The presidential hopeful far outshines Labour’s leader, but Democrats need to consider the risk that he’ll hand the White House to the Republicans

Now I know what it’s like to Feel the Bern. During a week in New Hampshire culminating in his 22-point victory over Hillary Clinton on Tuesday, I saw Bernie Sanders in action, and it’s quite something. The talk of a movement is not exaggerated. His followers – many, but not all, young – are ready to walk through snowstorms to wave signs, hand out T-shirts and cheer themselves hoarse at his every sentence.

Related: Bernie Sanders secures decisive win over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire

The sharpest objection to Sanders is lodged against Corbyn: that he is unelectable. In the US, that case remains strong

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Trident and Labour; and the New Hampshire primary – Politics Weekly podcast

Ian Jack, Rowena Mason, Gary Younge and Jonathan Freedland join Tom Clark to discuss Labour’s fractious debate over the renewal of Britain’s nuclear deterrent and the anti-establishment winners of the New Hampshire primaries

Within a matter of weeks parliament could vote on Britain’s maintenance of its nuclear deterrent. The Commons will vote to keep nuclear weapons – the Conservatives along with many Labour MPs will see to that. But it will force the Labour party to clarify its official position, which is currently at odds with its leader Jeremy Corbyn’s longstanding and fierce opposition to Trident.

Joining Tom Clark to discuss this are Guardian columnists Ian Jack and Gary Younge and our political correspondent Rowena Mason.

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Sanders and Trump look to capitalize on New Hampshire wins – campaign live

Follow our live coverage of the fallout after victories for the insurgents in the New Hampshire primary, as Sanders travels to New York to meet Al Sharpton

Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders both gave epic victory speeches last night - the Vermont senator may, in fact, still be speaking. Check out your future co-presidents:

He always said he was a winner; winning was his brand. And on Tuesday night in New Hampshire, Donald Trump finally got to live up to his own hype.

Reality and the brand came together at last.

Related: Donald Trump tore up the rulebook of American politics – and is winning | Jonathan Freedland

Can’t bear to look? Here’s a recap of last night’s winners - and losers - in two minutes:

It was, agreed both winners, a “yuge” night in American politics.

Related: Crashing the parties: Sanders and Trump victories vindicate the 'outsiders'

Hello, and welcome to our coverage of the 2016 presidential campaign, the day after Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump made history in New Hampshire with respective victories for their unpredictable and “revolutionary” campaigns.

Trump, the billionaire who has mocked his opponents and inflamed anti-immigrant sentiment on his way to the top of the polls, won by a double-digit margin over the Republican field on Tuesday. Unusually emotional after the win, he told supporters: “I will be greatest jobs president God ever created.”

Related: New Hampshire results: resounding wins for Trump and Sanders

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Donald Trump tore up the rulebook of American politics – and is winning | Jonathan Freedland

The businessman’s candidacy for the Republican nomination has always defied the usual laws of political gravity. It may take him to the White House

He always said he was a winner; winning was his brand. And on Tuesday night in New Hampshire, Donald Trump finally got to live up to his own hype.

Reality and the brand came together at last.

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New Hampshire primary: Hillary Clinton concedes defeat to Bernie Sanders – live

The Guardian’s Ben Jacobs is at the Trump party, where supporters feel “great” and “vindicated”:

Sandy Woodmansee, an ardent Trump supporter from Epping, New Hampshire, who boasted that he had been to more Trump events than anyone but the candidate himself, told the Guardian “I feel great. I feel like it was worth it.”

Trump party is heaving. The bar doing very brisk business. Lots here adamant that Donald Trump is on his way to the White House #NHPrimary

The mood is picking up at the Clinton rally, writes the Guardian’s Lauren Gambino:

The room is remaining fairly buoyant despite the big loss. Clinton is expected to speak here shortly #FITN pic.twitter.com/jUbIHHitaS

A little taste of the atmosphere here at Clinton's New Hampshire primary party in Hooksett pic.twitter.com/LQrnSkfKTE

Clinton called Sanders about 8.15pm to congratulate him, according to source here at Bernie party.

Jeb Bush just left the hotel here in Concord where John Kasich is holding a party that is getting more crowded with every precinct that comes in, writes the Guardian’s Matt Sullivan:

This is the battle for second place, and if these two Republicans passing in the night are any early indication (Bush’s party in Manchester doesn’t even officially start for a few minutes), the Ohio governor is winning.

With all this focus on one state (and a state which is whiter and wealthier than the rest of the US too) it’s worth checking in with the wider picture.

Senior Sanders staff see this decisive win in New Hampshire as their ticket to the genuine national campaign momentum that has so far proved difficult to achieve, writes Guardian Washington bureau chief Dan Roberts:

A major television advertising blitz is planned from tomorrow in a number of markets where they have yet to compete and they believe they can now outspend the opposition with the help of soaring individual donations.

We’re waiting to hear from Trump in Manchester...

Waiting for the Donald. Crowd at Trump victory party eagerly anticipating their man pic.twitter.com/giagTtWLXo

Trump supporter Jack Martin at his victory party pic.twitter.com/rquUtGNEnL

One tidbit of conventional political wisdom that’s often been bandied about this election season is that – was that – Florida senator Marco Rubio was the candidate that Democrats feared most. He’s young, eloquent and Latino with a record of moderation on immigration, though he’s run away from that.

Rubio was hailed as the somehow winner of the Iowa caucuses, despite his third-place finish there, behind Trump and Cruz. Rubio was hot. He was ascendant.

Democrats very grateful tonight for Christie’s murder-suicide play against Rubio.

Clinton’s campaign manager, Robby Mook, said the campaigns were “splitting the first two contests” after her extremely narrow victory in Iowa, calling Sanders’s victory in New Hampshire “an outcome we’ve long anticipated”.

“The nomination will very likely be won in March, not February, and we believe that Hillary Clinton is well positioned to build a strong – potentially insurmountable – delegate lead next month,” he wrote in a memo to reporters, which focused in large part on Clinton’s strength among African American and Hispanic voters. “They know her, trust her and are excited about her candidacy,” Mook said.

The contest might be over for the crown, but among Republicans, the battle for second place is raging on.

Intermission from avalanche of results: Video: Escaped pig shows up at New Hampshire polling station

From Guardian US columnist Jeb Lund, live in Tampa:

The only two questions after the New Hampshire Republican primary results are by how much Trump eventually wins and how hard the Republican Party tries to rationalize this while being frog-marched to a buffet full of crow. The answer to both is probably a lot.

The Guardian’s Lauren Gambino sends greetings from Hillary Clinton’s “not-so fun New Hampshire primary night ‘party’”:

It’s cold. Snow showers are forecast. The press were kept outside for nearly one hour - some longer - while US secret service agents cleared reporters. Once inside, everyone discovered the Wifi doesn’t work. And that’s not all!

This is how @berniesanders fans feel pic.twitter.com/ZgRrmb57wk

Late last year, an article from the New Yorker posed the question “are polls ruining democracy?” and considered how our obsession with numbers is having negative consequences for political discourse because they decide things like who gets to stand on stage at political debates.

The AP has just effectively called the winner of the Democratic and Republican races based on polling. Thinking about all the voters in New Hampshire who are still waiting in line to have their democratic say, I’m reminded of that New Yorker piece.

BREAKING: Sanders, Trump win the New Hampshire primaries. @AP race call at 8 p.m. EST. #Election2016 #APracecall.

Once upon a time, about a week ago, Florida senator Marco Rubio was supposed to swoop to second in the Granite State.

He still might get there. He’s currently holding in fifth place, with 12.33% reporting.

Supporters at Rubio rally striking defiant tone. Even if Kasich or Jeb outperform in NH, they say, neither will be palatable to base.

Kasich is outperforming Rubio just about everywhere pic.twitter.com/XrXgXtsbfY

Guardian opinion editor Jonathan Freedland is inside the Trump party, where it’s – a party!

“Trump aide tells me they’re almost as delighted by Kasich’s potential second place as their win: means no single rival is emerging #NH,” Jonathan tweets.

At Trump victory party: big cheer for very early returns showing big numbers for their man #NHPrimary pic.twitter.com/Cl9O9KkuvQ

At Trump Victory party. When pundit says "This is an angry electorate", the room cheers its approval #NHPrimary

Exit polls

As the results slowly trickle in, it’s tempting to watch what exit polls are saying. After all, they have nice(ish) clear(ish) charts and they show answers to interesting questions like whether or not the debates affected voter choices.

As Guardian Washington bureau chief Dan Roberts notes, Bernie Sanders won New Hampshire so fast, all his supporters didn’t even have time to file into the hall.

Anyway it’s good to be fashionably late to a party:

The Bernie Sanders election party has a DJ. Let's just say he kicked it up a gear when that CNN projection came in. https://t.co/hzOUj9Rmq0

There are 40 people at Ben Carson’s New Hampshire celebration party. That’s including a baby and a very young boy.

The party for the retired neurosurgeon was only scheduled to begin at 7.30pm so maybe it will fill up.

Ben Carson New Hampshire celebratory party. Mood: chill pic.twitter.com/STfF3xm3hl

How is it possible it took them so long to come up with these:

A new addition to Trump's party tonight: Foam Trump fingers. pic.twitter.com/1gpUI0PNnf

They should be foam middle fingers. https://t.co/Fyj7x4MHBW

Lots of action at the bar at the Trump watch party in Manchester. #nhprimary pic.twitter.com/6RtLPkaEOg

Guardian Washington bureau chief captures the moment:

Why was the Associated Press able to call the New Hampshire race so quickly?

Two words: ginormous blowouts.

The AP projects winners, instantly:

BREAKING: Sanders, Trump win the New Hampshire primaries. @AP race call at 8 p.m. EST. #Election2016 #APracecall.

... except where not. All polls in New Hampshire were to have closed tonight at 8pm ET. In the last hour, however, there have been multiple reports of poling stations held open late due to crowds. Their statuses are unclear.

Crane your neck to the results widget atop the blog there and you’ll notice that a whopping 4% of results are in on the Democratic side and Bernie Sanders holds an authoritative lead. A slightly less whopping 3% of results are in on the Republican and Donald Trump’s red bar is longest.

You can follow results county-by-county in New Hampshire on our map here:

Related: New Hampshire primary results: track the votes, county by county

Well here’s a nice way to think about it:

If you’re tired of hearing about Donald Trump, too bad! Expect wall to wall Trump for weeks.

New Hampshire voters are teaching voters across America a lesson. The numbers of voters stretched around the buildings and down the streets shows the rest of the country that voting is something to be taken seriously, and that your vote makes a difference.
Big cheer to all the voters of New Hampshire - of both parties and independents.

I'd be incredibly surprised if Sanders doesn't win this. Easy win.

Do you English follow all US elections this closely? Seems kind of unhealthy. I mean, you're lucky enough to live thousands of miles away...... it's little weird, right?

Could someone please explain, to someone who gets as confused by USA elections as he does watching American football, just how significant this Sanders victory will be in a wider context? Thanks in advance.

Google, which sees you when you’re sleeping, and knows when you’re awake, sees a spike in searches for John Kasich among New Hampshire Internet users toward the end of primary-Palooza here:

Here are some actual results, from the coastal town of Seabrook in southeastern New Hampshire:

Wow… The earliest results show Trump having a monster night

President Trump. pic.twitter.com/NozhWsE15g

Seabrook is a classic middle-to-working class, moderate, coastal New England town https://t.co/ZBzfSBhDDq

Voted 52% Romney, 20% Paul, 10% Huntsman in 2012. Tonight:

Trump: 54%
Bush: 11%
Rubio: 10%

...devastating. https://t.co/bBObp7yazd

Looks like we picked the right after-party:

Ain't no election night watch party like a @BernieSanders election night watch party, thanks to Austin's @DJMel pic.twitter.com/9wk6KXEirJ

The murmur has turned relatively rocking here in Concord at the scene of a party-in-waiting for John Kasich, the Ohio governor who was all-in on the Granite State and – if early exit polls are any indication, which they’re often not – might have a lot to celebrate.

Related: John Kasich supporters feel their man is on the rise in New Hampshire

We’re seeing a lot of reports of polling stations being held open due to long lines – in pretty bitter cold, we’d note – still forming outside the stations.

Line of undeclared voters in Bedford looks even longer now. (Wait was an hour earlier). Polls staying open xtra late to accommodate.

Merrimack: Those in traffic jam as of 7 p.m. will be able to vote. @MerrimackPD cars marking end of traffic line. pic.twitter.com/hwr7M1Wc9u

If you want to read more about what exit polls are claiming to have determined about the makeup and cast of mind of the voters who turned up to cast ballots in New Hampshire today... we will provide for you, caveat emptor, a link to a fairly comprehensive roundup of the “results” over on the web site of ABC News. We’re just going to leave that link... right... here.

CNN’s running a chyron that says “Trump campaign cautiously optimistic.”

“Ha!” a hack in the media center is heard to say. “They’re not cautiously anything!”

You’ll notice now our results widget sitting atop the blog there. You also might notice that, despite the striking bar graphs and useful percentage breakdowns of who’s taking what share of the vote – that almost none of the results are in. Specifically, 1% of the results are in. So those bar graphs aren’t yet meaningful.

If you are interested in tracking the New Hampshire result county-by-county, you can visit our interactive maps page.

Related: New Hampshire primary results: track the votes, county by county

If you like what you read here, we’d encourage you to sign up for The Campaign Minute, our quickie politics roundup, delivered once a day to your phone or inbox.

The Minute brings you the top headlines, the best photography, the telling-est quotes and the wackiest moments from the 2016 presidential campaign trail. It’s all delivered in a speedily scrollable format (full disclosure: you can read it in 45 seconds!).

Here we go – a majority of polling stations in New Hampshire are now closing, although huge turnout across the state may keep some open later than intended.

Exit polling indicates a wariness about non-citizen Muslims entering the United States on the part of two-thirds of Republican voters; a relatively low proportion of Democratic voters who describe themselves as very liberal (26%) and enthusiasm on both sides for wholesale political change.

They were turning people away from the Bernie Sanders results party before polling had even closed, much to the frustration of supporters flocking to the high school venue without tickets.

Inside, senior campaign staff are looking supremely relaxed but refusing to rise to the bait when presented with exit poll rumours by reporters. The mood is a stark contrast to the nail-biting scenes a week ago in Iowa, where the result remained uncertain all evening. Here in Concord, few doubt he will win, the question is by how much.

Lest there be any doubt as to the integrity of reports of large voter turnouts in New Hampshire...

Line of people waiting to vote in #NHPrimary estimated to be 2 miles long in Merrimack https://t.co/3ktMY2ZER2 #WCVB pic.twitter.com/jcHDKgf2ue

Related: Candidates make final push as New Hampshire polls close – as it happened

Here’s the scene inside Concord High School, which is preparing to host the Bernie Sanders victory party (or stunning non-victory anti-party, as the case may be):

Hello and welcome to our minute-by-minute coverage of the first presidential primary of the 2016 US election. We are here, on the ground, live in Concord, New Hampshire, plus up and down this state for the exciting denouement.

This was a day in which exuberant voter turnout was reported across New Hampshire (check out our day out at the polls here). We’re expecting results to begin flooding in momentarily – and with them, a suddenly sharper picture of the Democratic and Republican races for the White House.

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New Hampshire primary: candidates make final push as voting begins – live coverage

Less than a month after Donald Trump began his improbable presidential campaign that has brought him to the cusp of victory in the New Hampshire primaries, the Guardian’s Ben Jacobs (a latter-day Cassandra who prefers to be known as a latter-day Jeremiah) pointed out that the “loudmouth who has never spent a day in public office” was resonating with voters in a way seldom seen before.

Seven months later, his initial instincts about Trump’s candidacy are eerily prescient:

Related: 'This country's bankrupt': supporters keep Donald Trump in business

Presidential hopefuls from the Republican and the Democratic parties are making a final push in New Hampshire as voting begins in earnest in the state’s “first in the nation” primary election. Hillary Clinton was joined by daughter Chelsea as she visited a polling station in Manchester on Tuesday morning, while Marco Rubio greeted supporters at another location in the same town.

Who are you voting for?

The Guardian’s Ben Jacobs reports from the most important diner in New Hampshire:

To paraphrase Jerry Seinfeld, the campaign to come in first out of all the losers is heating up.

Now there's a splash headline that says 'read me'! pic.twitter.com/5ds16hn1mI

“Democracy in action!” is more than just an empty aphorism muttered by shrugging cable news correspondents when confronted with evidence of how strange and poorly organized the electoral process is - it’s also a real action!

Reuters has a live video feed from a New Hampshire voting station, where Granite Staters are exercising their not-entirely-fair prerogative as citizens of the “first in the nation” primary state to select the likely presidential nominees for each party. (Hey, it’s better than a smoke-filled room.)

Since physiological support like respirators and defibrillators made it possible to prolong life, prolonging death has fueled a more subtle conversation, writes Ann Neumann:

Related: Candidates avoid the aid in dying debate, but it's time to start talking about it | Ann Neumann

Who are you voting for?

With voting already under way in the Granite State, months of polling is about to come to a head. Will months of common wisdom be upset by poor organization, as was the case in Iowa? Or will pollsters comfortably rest their heads tonight with visions of sugar plums chanting “I told you so” dancing in their heads?

Reporting from New Hampshire, the Guardian’s DC bureau chief Dan Roberts asked a few young Granite State voters why they’re supporting Bernie Sanders. The consensus: His progressivism seems legit.

The son of Republican presidential candidate and real estate billionaire Donald Trump declared on Fox News last night that his father’s endorsement of waterboarding is more than defensible, comparing the practice to “what happens on college campuses in frant houses.”

“You see these terrorists that are flying planes into buildings,” said Eric Trump on Fox News’s On the Record. “You see our cities getting shot up in California. You see Paris getting shot up.”

If the polls can’t predict the election, maybe the planets can.

“Whoever does well in New Hampshire, it looks like this might be who is president in November,” astrologer Christopher Renstrom said.

Related: Astrologers predict New Hampshire results: whoever wins will be president

Bernie Sanders was once a Democratic underdog who barely registered in the polls - now the senator has thousands of New Hampshire supporters buckled into his “political revolution” bandwagon leading up to a primary that could catapult him over Hillary Clinton. Dan Roberts reports from Manchester on how Sanders became a force to be reckoned with:

Related: How the Bernie Sanders campaign became a force to be reckoned with

Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are on opposite ends of the political spectrum - well, unless you consider their stances on single-payer health care - but their supporters have some surprising similarities. Half of Trump’s supporters say they are angry at Washington, and a third of Sanders’ supporters agree. Meanwhile, 43% of Trump’s supporters are registered Democrats who are fed up with the status quo.

Related: Clinton's struggle with young women in spotlight as New Hampshire votes

Donald Trump has an explanation for calling fellow presidential candidate and Iowa caucus victor Ted Cruz a “pussy” yesterday:

"It was like a retweet." @realDonaldTrump on repeating a supporter’s colorful comment about Ted Cruzhttps://t.co/jvGyit3Bau

Happy Primary Day!

In a final push to reach voters as the polls opened on Tuesday, Hillary Clinton and Chelsea Clinton greeted volunteers at a polling station at Parker Varney School. A crowd of volunteers and some voters cheered as the motorcade swept in at around 6:45. They cheered, waved blue HRC signs and chanted “603 for HRC!” as she arrived and “I believe that she will win!” as she left. Clinton and Chelsea shook hands, posed for voters and thanked volunteers who she worked “day and night for me”.

This morning’s woodcut from the New York Daily News, the second-most popular tabloid among Gotham’s straphangers:

The Clinton campaign, apparently unpreoccupied by the New Hampshire primary, is putting a few Hollywood celebrities on blast.

2 eerily similar tweets, same baseless smear. @SusanSarandon @MarkRuffalo Dems attacking philanthropy is a new low. pic.twitter.com/TGcTJ8x9Fp

.@NickMerrill @MarkRuffalo "eerily similar" because that's the title of the article we both shared that you didn't include in the screenshot

With the nine residents casting their votes by 20 seconds past midnight, a few tiny towns continue a New Hampshire tradition and gives candidates an early boost. Adam Gabbatt reports from North Hampton:

Related: Midnight vote in Dixville Notch puts Sanders and Kasich ahead in New Hampshire

On the eve of the primary, Donald Trump repeated an offensive remark from a member of the crowd about Ted Cruz’s position on waterboarding. Ben Jacobs reports from Manchester:

Related: Trump repeats crowd member's 'pussy' insult as New Hampshire votes

New Hampshire: It’s home to America’s first astronaut, its first potato and its first primary. Tonight’s vote could determine the fate of this year’s slew of presidential candidates, from Donald Trump’s out-of-left-field campaign to Bernie Sanders’ way-out-of-literal-left-field campaign.

For the curious or confused, a quick explainer on the New Hampshire primary and what’s at stake in the Granite State:

Good morning, and happy first-in-the-nation primary!

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Bill Clinton digs into Sanders in last-ditch pitch before New Hampshire vote

The frustrated former president delivered laundry list of attacks on Bernie Sanders as Tuesday primary could threaten Hillary Clinton’s place as frontrunner

For years, they called him the Big Dog. And in a modest, middle school gym in smalltown New Hampshire, they finally let him bare his teeth.

Campaigning for his wife in the state he still credits for rescuing his own presidential bid when it seemed doomed 24 years ago, Bill Clinton tore into Bernie Sanders, the self-styled “democratic socialist” senator who heads into Tuesday’s vote with a commanding poll lead.

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Trump and Sanders make final push on day before New Hampshire primary – live coverage

One of the women who has accused former US president Bill Clinton of sexual assault says she has agreed to work for an anti-Clinton political group being formed by a former advisor to Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, Reuters reports.

Kathleen Willey, a former White House volunteer who says Bill Clinton groped her in an Oval Office hallway in 1993 when she came to him seeking a paid job, said she had agreed to become a paid national spokeswoman for a group being created by Roger Stone.

Stone, a Republican strategist, said the group would become active should Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton’s wife, win the Democratic nomination in the 2016 race for the White House.

Jonathan Freedland saw Jeb Bush make his closing argument at a town hall meeting in Salem, New Hampshire, on Sunday, offering himself as the candidate of quiet competence - and an alternative to what he called the damaging “divisiveness” of Donald Trump.

Donald Trump was just interviewed down the line on MSNBC’s Morning Joe, which has almost become his second home over the last few months.

He repeated many of his usual talking points, and called Jeb Bush “a stiff”, but asked about his message to the voters of New Hampshire, he mentioned the heroin problem in the state.

You don’t think of New Hampshire as having that problem … It’s a massive problem up here.

[In New Hampshire] you walk in and you pull the trigger and you vote and go home, as opposed to sitting around for hours discussing things.

I have a good memory … I heard him make the statement, and that was fine. And then he made it a second time. And that was sort of fine, you know, that was OK. And then he made it a third and a fourth and a fifth time, and I’m thinking: am I hearing things? What’s going on over here?

Good morning from New Hampshire, with one day to go before the crucial primary which could see Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders convert their insurgencies against the party establishments into electoral success.

For some of the Republican candidates, such as New Jersey governor Chris Christie, Ohio governor John Kasich and former Florida governor Jeb Bush, a poor showing tomorrow could be the end of their presidential ambitions.

Almost every Super Bowl commercial so far has urged Americans to embrace the future. Bad news for @HillaryClinton. Good news for @TeamMarco

Almost every Super Bowl commercial so far has been 30 seconds and pre-scripted. Good news for @TeamMarco https://t.co/tS5wEoYFty

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Marco Rubio turns into ‘Marcobot’ in disastrous debate gaffe | Jonathan Freedland

The young Florida senator’s momentum was stopped in its tracks Saturday as Chris Christie unleashed taunts over his ‘memorized 25-second’ speech glitch

Defenders of the long, arduous process by which the United States elects a president often say the marathon campaign’s chief value is that it finds people out. On Saturday night that old saw was confirmed once again – and the candidate being found out was Marco Rubio.

The freshman Florida senator went into the final Republican debate before New Hampshire votes on Tuesday as the rising favourite. Many tipped him if not to win outright then at least to become the standard bearer of the party’s establishment or (relatively) moderate wing, the man who could take on the ultra-conservative Ted Cruz or the untamed firebreather Donald Trump. A good performance tonight would seal the deal.

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