Arsenal’s fans anticipated this as soon as Arsène Wenger left with fears of a repeat of the Manchester United experience

A moment from the 2016 campaign came back to me this week. Not the EU referendum, though that decision hovers over every aspect of this election, but rather the US presidential contest that same year. I was in Cleveland, Ohio, speaking to a proud member of Bikers4Trump, all in leather save for the stars and stripes bandana. What exactly was it about Donald Trump that appealed? “He’s honest,” came the reply.

I have never trusted opinion polls less than I do now. Part of that is bitter experience, after polls proved their fallibility in 2015, 2016 and 2017. Part of it is a more specific lesson taught by the US presidential election three years ago, when Hillary Clinton learned to her cost that a hefty national poll lead means nothing in a contest that is settled one state at a time. This logic applies in spades to a UK election, which is not won nationally but seat by seat by seat.

After Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn go head to head, four writers assess who gave the best performance Continue reading...

Donald Trump has spat out so many insults and broken so many taboos that it’s hard for any single remark to linger long in the memory. Nevertheless one line from his 2016 election campaign has endured, partly because it was a jaw-dropper and partly because it offered an early glimpse of what would later be revealed as a deep truth about both his candidacy and his presidency – and even our current world.

Donald Trump has spat out so many insults and broken so many taboos that it’s hard for any single remark to linger long in the memory. Nevertheless one line from his 2016 election campaign has endured, partly because it was a jaw-dropper and partly because it offered an early glimpse of what would later be revealed as a deep truth about both his candidacy and his presidency – and even our current world.

For most progressive-minded, remain-leaning folk, is it even a dilemma? I’m not sure. To them the logic must seem simple and straightforward: they want to eject a cruel and useless government and stop Brexit, and that means denying Boris Johnson a majority and replacing him with Jeremy Corbyn, who will end austerity and hold a second referendum. Job done.

Say it like a catechism, every morning, every evening and twice before meals: no one knows what will happen, no one knows what will happen, no one knows what will happen. This is as unpredictable an election as there’s ever been, with voter volatility at record highs and party allegiance at record lows. No one knows how the divisions within the competing tribes of leave and remain will play out: will Nigel Farage hive off pro-Brexit voters from the Tories and so boost Labour, or could it be the other way around? As the late screenwriter William Goldman so famously said of Hollywood: “Nobody knows anything.”