Vince Cable, the other party leader stepping down this summer, looks like a man ready to hand over. In the Twickenham home he has lived in for 45 years, a table is covered with piles of notes and clippings from the Financial Times – “horizontal filing,” he calls it – research for a new book he is working on. It is a study of how major politicians “have changed the way we do economics”, from Alexander Hamilton to Margaret Thatcher and, although he has not made a final decision on this – because who knows how the story will end? – Donald Trump. He will soon have more time for that project. Unlike Theresa May, the 76-year-old leader of the Liberal Democrats did not have to be dragged from politics’ front line. It was his decision.

Strange to say this of a country with a Tory government, but Britain lacks a conservative party. There are instead two revolutionary parties of the right, firmly set on a path that could be described as nationalist or populist. But it is avowedly not conservative. And now they are locked in a struggle that is dragging the older, larger party ever further from the values that are supposed to define it.

No one would cast Robert Mueller as the lead in a romcom. And yet watching him deliver a statement on Wednesday regarding his inquiry into Donald Trump, Russia and obstruction of justice was to experience a sensation familiar to all romcom devotees.

Follow updates on the Tory leadership race, the Brexit crisis, and the rows in the Labour party over antisemitism and expulsions

As a dead cat, Alastair Campbell has proved most effective. You’ll recall the advice of the rightwing election guru Lynton Crosby, who recommended that a politician about to face a scandal or crushing revelation throw a dead cat on the table: onlookers might be appalled, even disgusted – but at least you’d have changed the subject.

It’s now all or nothing. Theresa May has gone, most likely taking with her the possibility of a negotiated exit from the European Union. It means that the choice that will soon face the country is starker than before: a no-deal Brexit – or no Brexit at all.

As the PM recedes from view, her colleagues are more interested in the race to succeed her than the European elections

Let’s say the pollsters have got it wrong. After all, their record is hardly perfect. So let’s say they’ve called it wrong and the Tories are not down to 7%, which would be the worst electoral performance in their history; that Labour are not on a meagre 13%, trailing six points behind the Lib Dems and a single point ahead of the Green party. Let’s say those numbers, from YouGov’s last poll for the Times ahead of tomorrow’s European elections, prove to be off once the votes are counted. Even if that happens, there’s one finding that is unlikely to be upended. If it were, the pollsters would have to be more wrong than they have ever been, and to an outlandishly large degree. That finding, shared by all the polling organisations, is the imminent victory of Nigel Farage and his Brexit party.

Let’s say the pollsters have got it wrong. After all, their record is hardly perfect. So let’s say they’ve called it wrong and the Tories are not down to 7%, which would be the worst electoral performance in their history; that Labour are not on a meagre 13%, trailing six points behind the Lib Dems and a single point ahead of the Green party. Let’s say those numbers, from YouGov’s last poll for the Times ahead of tomorrow’s European elections, prove to be off once the votes are counted. Even if that happens, there’s one finding that is unlikely to be upended. If it were, the pollsters would have to be more wrong than they have ever been, and to an outlandishly large degree. That finding, shared by all the polling organisations, is the imminent victory of Nigel Farage and his Brexit party.

Shall we take a nostalgic trip back to the distant past of two weeks ago? You’ll remember there were local elections in England, in which the pro-Brexit parties took a pasting, while the anti-Brexit parties surged. You might also recall how the main parties interpreted those results: they hailed them as a heartfelt plea from the voters to get on with Brexit.